How much is a James Bond film actually worth?

«James Bond: No Time to Die» was meant to premiere in April 2020. But then the pandemic came along. And then lockdown. Then cinemas closed. That's when all Hollywood blockbusters got postponed indefinitely.

It's not just cinema operators that are being affected. Film studios are also feeling the pinch. They're in a similar situation to jam-packed warehouses where nothing is being sold – produced films are just sitting there, waiting to be shown. For the price of a ticket, of course. And then there's the production and marketing costs to cover that are into the millions.

There's also the fact that the streaming industry has been booming in the meantime. I mean, where else are viewers supposed to watch their favourite films right now? Film studios recognised that. And quite early on, actually. Films like «Trolls: World Tour», «Greyhound» and «Onward» never made it to the big screen.

Could the latest spy thriller starring Daniel Craig as James Bond meet the same fate? And if so, what's the value of a «Bond» film?

Netflix and Apple TV+ say they'd be interested... theoretically

First things first, if it was up to Barbara Broccoli, there's no way the hotly awaited 25th Bond film would be flogged off to a streaming service. Barbara is a traditionalist and co-owns the film rights. She's the daughter of legendary Bond producer Albert «Cubby» Broccoli, who brought the film series to life in the 60s and continued to develop it until his death. The news agency Bloomberg reported that officially, MGM film studio takes the same stance as Barbara Broccoli.

But there's talk of internal conflict. Both The Hollywood Reporter and Variety cite sources from within the studio who claim that MGM has sounded out the streaming market behind Barbara Broccoli's back.

So let's get to the question we all want to know the answer to: «How much would exclusive, one-year distribution rights for a Bond film be worth?»

Netflix and Apple TV+ have apparently already expressed interest. Their offer was somewhere between 350 and 400 million dollars. But that wasn't enough for MGM. The film studio had a figure between 600 and 700 million dollars in mind. Or preferably even more.

How did MGM work out that figure?

These kind of calculations aren't random, and you can't just pull them out of thin air. They're based on a number of factors that influence the potential value of the film.

• Production: it cost about 250 million dollars, including taxes, to film in some of the most exotic locations that we've come to expect for Bond films.
• Marketing: at least 50 million dollars have already been spent on marketing campaigns.
• Distribution licence fees: United Artists retains the distribution rights for North America, while Universal Pictures has distribution rights for the rest of the world. The amount in distribution licence fees hasn't been disclosed.
• Box office bonuses: directors and actors, like Daniel Craig, Rami Malek and Christoph Waltz, were contractually guaranteed bonuses dependent on box office takings.

There are also product placement deals to factor in, including those with Land Rover, Omega, Nokia and Heineken. These are companies that made deals based on the assumption that their products will be shown on big cinema screens rather than just on the TV in your living room. The latter just isn’t synonymous with the luxury and glamour the Bond franchise emanates. So if MGM insists on a streaming release, these deals will probably have to be renegotiated.

When you do the maths, MGM is left with a ready-to-release Bond film that could be worth between 600 and 700 million dollars. In other words, that’s when they'd break even.

The figure is still much less than the rumoured billion dollars it was expected to bring in at the box office and that MGM would have expected under normal circumstances. The film studio certainly managed to reach that target in 2012 with «Skyfall». When «Spectre» came out three years after, it still made 880 million dollars.

Could the rumours about streaming the next Bond film be true?

Officially, there isn't any truth in the streaming release rumours. Unofficially, Barbara Broccoli and MGM studio bosses seem to have different views on the strategy to stick to a cinema premiere date. Especially as the studio is worried about brining in less money next April than Netflix and Apple TV+ are prepared to pay. I’m having déjà vu. «Tenet», is that you?

The thing is, they can't do anything unless Barbara agrees. That aside, MGM's financial objectives appear to be much greater than the available funds Netflix and Apple have to invest. Especially if the exclusive distribution rights were limited to one year. At least that's what sources close to Netflix top management have been saying, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Netflix Originals like the 150-million-dollar «6 Underground» directed by Michael Bay, for instance. Or the surprise hit «Extraction» starring Chris Hemsworth in the lead role.

The chances of «James Bond: No Time to Die» being released in cinemas on 2 April 2021 look fairly good – just as long as the pandemic eases a bit by then.